Pesquisa Doxa mostra ainda alto índice de indecisos e rejeição ao campo ideológico em Minas Gerais
O senador Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) aparece mais uma vez à frente da disputa pelo Palácio dos Tiradentes. Levantamento da Doxa Pesquisa, divulgado nesta segunda-feira (22/12), revela um cenário fragmentado, marcado por uma liderança apertada, forte variação regional e um eleitorado distante do espectro político.
No voto estimulado para o primeiro turno da eleição para governador de Minas Gerais, Cleitinho aparece na dianteira, com 26% das intenções de voto, seguido de perto pelo ex-prefeito de Belo Horizonte Alexandre Kalil (PDT), que soma 21%.
Apesar da vantagem numérica de Cleitinho, quase quatro em cada dez eleitores ainda não escolheram um candidato. “Estamos falando de 39% dos eleitores que não se posicionaram”, destaca Manuel Vilas Boas, diretor do Instituto Doxa, ao comentar o contingente de eleitores que declararam votar em branco, nulo ou em nenhum dos nomes apresentados ou que preferiram não responder à pesquisa.
Depois de Cleitinho e Kalil, aparecem Gabriel Azevedo (MDB), com 9%, enquanto Mateus Simões (PSD), atual vice-governador, e Tadeu Martins (MDB) registram 2%, cada.O diretor da Doxa observa que, fora os dois primeiros colocados, todos os demais enfrentam níveis elevados de desconhecimento em praticamente todo o estado.
Depois de Cleitinho e Kalil, aparecem Gabriel Azevedo (MDB), com 9%, enquanto Mateus Simões (PSD), atual vice-governador, e Tadeu Martins (MDB) registram 2%, cada.
O diretor da Doxa observa que, fora os dois primeiros colocados, todos os demais enfrentam níveis elevados de desconhecimento em praticamente todo o estado.
“Essa indecisão é muito em função do desconhecimento dos candidatos colocados hoje. Cleitinho tem muita presença nas redes sociais, Kalil já foi presidente do Atlético e prefeito de Belo Horizonte. São os dois que largam à frente”, afirma.
Cenários
Quando o recorte é feito pelo porte dos municípios, a liderança de Cleitinho se consolida nas cidades pequenas e médias. Nos municípios de pequeno porte, o senador alcança 28%, dez pontos à frente de Kalil. Em cidades médias, a diferença aumenta. Cleitinho chega a 30%, enquanto Kalil aparece com 15%. Também é nesses municípios que o volume de eleitores sem posição definida (42%) salta aos olhos.
O cenário muda nos grandes centros urbanos. Nas cidades de grande porte, Cleitinho e Kalil aparecem tecnicamente empatados, ambos com 25%. Gabriel Azevedo mantém presença, com 7%, enquanto Mateus Simões sobe para 3%.
Já em Belo Horizonte, a disputa assume outro desenho: Alexandre Kalil lidera com folga, alcançando 34% das intenções de voto, seguido por Gabriel Azevedo, com 17%, e Cleitinho, com 16%.
Segundo turno
As simulações de segundo turno reforçam o equilíbrio entre os principais nomes. No confronto direto entre Cleitinho e Kalil, o senador aparece com 31%, contra 30% do ex-prefeito. A diferença está dentro da margem de erro, enquanto 23% dos entrevistados afirmam que votariam em branco ou nulo, e 16% não souberam responder
O detalhamento regional dessa simulação mostra Cleitinho à frente em cidades pequenas e médias, enquanto Kalil supera o adversário nos grandes municípios e amplia a vantagem em Belo Horizonte, onde alcança 46%, contra 23% de Cleitinho.
Em um segundo cenário de segundo turno, sem Cleitinho, Alexandre Kalil lidera a disputa contra o vice-governador, Mateus Simões, com 32% das intenções de voto, ante 14% do oponente. Mais da metade do eleitorado (54%) permanece sem uma posição.
Pesquisa
A pesquisa também procurou entender o que o eleitor espera do próximo governador de Minas. Mais da metade dos entrevistados (56%) afirma desejar uma mudança nas políticas públicas adotadas pela atual gestão.
O sentimento de mudança, na avaliação do diretor do Instituto Doxa, esvazia o discurso de continuidade e pode dificultar a estratégia de Mateus Simões. “Todo candidato à reeleição tem uma ligação intrínseca com a avaliação do governo, e o governador não está bem avaliado. Com uma avaliação baixa do governo Zema e um eleitorado inclinado à mudança, o espaço para um candidato de oposição fica aberto”, analisa.
O levantamento investigou ainda a postura ideológica do candidato a governador que o eleitor prefere apoiar. O resultado aponta para um eleitorado majoritariamente indiferente a rótulos políticos: 47% dizem não se importar com a posição ideológica do candidato.
“São esses eleitores que vão decidir a eleição, tanto para governador quanto para presidente”, avalia Vilas Boas. Dentre os que se posicionam, 28% afirmam preferir um nome identificado com a direita, enquanto 17% optam pela esquerda, e apenas 7% se dizem alinhados ao centro.
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