Avanço do senador foi puxado por homens e evangélicos, enquanto o presidente preservou força entre mulheres e católicos
O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lidera a simulação de primeiro turno para a Presidência em pesquisa BTG/Nexus divulgada nesta segunda-feira (3), com 41% das intenções de voto, ante 37% do senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). A diferença de quatro pontos coloca os dois em empate técnico no limite da margem de erro, de dois pontos percentuais.
O levantamento é o primeiro divulgado após as convenções partidárias que oficializaram candidaturas para a eleição de 2026. Em relação à rodada de 27 de julho, Lula oscilou um ponto para baixo, dentro da margem de erro, enquanto Flávio registrou alta acima desse intervalo, reduzindo a distância que separava os dois.
Na mesma simulação estimulada de primeiro turno, o ex-governador de Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) alcança 5%, seguido pelo líder do Movimento Brasil Livre, Renan Santos (Missão), com 4%. O ex-governador de Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) tem 3%, enquanto Augusto Cury (Avante), Cabo Daciolo e Samara Martins marcam 1% cada.
Brancos e nulos somam 4%, e 3% dos entrevistados disseram não saber em quem votar. Na pesquisa espontânea, sem apresentação de nomes, Lula aparece com 36% e Flávio Bolsonaro com 28%; Renan Santos registra 3% e Caiado, 2%.
Lula empata tecnicamente com Flávio e Caiado no 2º turno
Na projeção de segundo turno entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro, o presidente tem 46% e o senador, 45%. O resultado também configura empate técnico e mostra uma disputa mais apertada do que na pesquisa anterior, quando os percentuais eram de 47% a 43%.
Lula marca 46% contra 42% de Caiado, outro cenário dentro da margem de erro. Diante de Zema, o presidente vence por 46% a 40%; contra Renan Santos, soma 47%, ante 37% do candidato do Missão.
O recorte por gênero indica vantagem de Lula entre mulheres, por 48% a 29%. Flávio Bolsonaro lidera entre homens, com 45% contra 34%. Entre evangélicos, o senador tem 50%, ante 28% de Lula; entre católicos, o petista registra 46%, contra 34% do adversário.
A pesquisa ouviu 2.002 eleitores por telefone entre 31 de julho e 2 de agosto, com nível de confiança de 95%. Contratado pelo Banco BTG Pactual, o levantamento está registrado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral sob o número BR-02874/2026.
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