O ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lidera a corrida eleitoral com até 37% das intenções de voto, diz o Datafolha divulgado nesta quarta-feira (31).
O levantamento foi publicado pelo jornal Folha de S. Paulo uma semana após a condenação do petista pelo TRF4, de Porto Alegre, no caso do tríplex de Guarujá (SP), cuja propriedade é falsamente atribuída ao ex-presidente. Ou seja, Lula não sofreu nenhum abalo depois de receber pena de 12 anos e um mês de prisão.
O ex-presidente lidera no primeiro turno em todos os cenários possíveis e também venceria todos os adversários no segundo turno. O petista venceria Alckmin (49% a 30%) e Marina (47% a 32%), além de Bolsonaro (49% a 32%).
Se a candidatura de Lula for barrada pelo judiciário, de acordo com o instituto, o deputado Jair Bolsonaro (PSL-RJ) assumiria a liderança da disputa presidencial com 18%. (Na simulação do primeiro turno ele tem 16%).
O ex-governador Ciro Gomes (PDT) tem 6% das intenções de voto, Marina Silva (Rede) tem 8%. O governador de São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) e Luciano Huck (Globo) têm 6%.
No cenário sem Lula, em que Bolsonaro lidera com 18%, Marina sobe para 13%; Ciro pula para 10%; Huck e Alckmin saltam para 8%.
O Datafolha fez 2.826 entrevistas em 174 municípios. A margem de erro é de dois pontos para mais ou menos. A pesquisa foi registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral com o número BR 05351/2018.
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